Satiation & Scarcity after Free AI

Capability scales. Appetite per task does not. Design systems that stop at done.

This page shows the P0 interactive figure shells for Satiation and Scarcity after Free AI. Claims stay ledger-safe (CLAIM_LEDGER_SATIATION.md). No board watts are asserted here. Epoch curves are cited, not invented.

Run the shipped simulator at /living/fpga-sim/, then the Alchitry Pt V2 guide for Stage C UART seed-1 evidence.

sat-inf-01

Engagement KPI vs Economic Reality of Satiation lenses

illustrative V1 stub

Toggle a lens to highlight divergence.

This figure compares two lenses on the same loop. The left lens tracks engagement metrics such as time and tokens. The right lens tracks a written completeness predicate. Engagement can rise after the predicate is already true. Illustrative Manim. No board joules are claimed. board_synth_claimed=false.

Toggle a lens to see where engagement KPI and Economic Reality of Satiation diverge. PDF twin: static two-lens panel (§1 / §3).

sat-fig-01

Bliss-point / satiation geometry

modelled (textbook) illustrative V1 stub

canvas stub; aspirational WASM

This figure shows a textbook bliss point. Utility peaks at x-star and can fall past it. The quadratic curve is a teaching model from the Andersen lineage. It is not fitted to agent logs and is not an Epoch price series. Modelled textbook. board_synth_claimed=false.

Textbook bliss-point geometry (Andersen 2001 lineage). This is not an agent evaluation. PDF twin: static bliss-point diagram (§3 / §4).

sat-tab-01

Race, satiation, then commodity

illustrative [SOFT] V1 stub

Tech	Race	Satiation signal	Commodity form

Click a row to expand honesty note.

Historical rows are tagged [SOFT]. PDF twin: static cycle table (§2 / §5).

sat-fig-02

Epoch free-at-margin price arc

modelled (external) illustrative (redraw) V1 stub not free joules

Digital chore price collapse is not free joules or free plant motion.

No invented series. Link Epoch primaries only (INFO_SCIENCE §3.3).

Price arc cited from Epoch. PDF twin: static arc plus link-out (§5).

sat-inf-02

Scarcity map

illustrative V1 stub

Still scarce

Commodity-heading

Click a tile.

Click a tile to see why it stays scarce or heads toward commodity. PDF twin: static two-column map (§4 / §7).

sat-diag-01

Refuse when Economic Reality of Satiation or physically unsafe

illustrative (design) V1 stub

Economic Reality of Satiation

policy / budget refuse

Physical unsafe

energy / LUT / CBF refuse

Refuse when done or unsafe. CommitDecision holds. No executor runs.

This figure shows two refuse branches that share one hold. Economic Reality of Satiation fires on policy or budget. Physical unsafe fires on LUT, energy, or CBF. Refuse is a typed success with a receipt. Design claim. measured_j is None. board_synth_claimed=false.

Economic Reality of Satiation and physical unsafe both produce a refuse. PDF twin: static Venn bridging to the WCA refuse taxonomy (§4 / §7).

sat-tab-02

Decision rules R-S6-R-S12

illustrative (design) V1 stub

ID	Rule	Tag

These are design claims, not empirics. PDF twin: static decision-rules table (§7).

sat-fig-04

Steelman counters (scoped)

illustrative V1 stub

Military and arms-race settings: satiation does not apply cleanly. PDF twin: static counter-table (§6).

shared-diag-01

Complement path (shared)

illustrative V1 stub

PDF twin: static Mermaid or SVG (§7).

shared-inf-01

Wave versus commit-law bet (shared)

illustrative V1 stub

Wave center

Scale, tokens per dollar, specialized silicon.

OpenIE bet

Commit law, joule tiers, refuse when done or unsafe.

Click a steelman card.

Two bets side by side. PDF twin: static two-column panel (§1).

shared-inf-02

Honesty tag meanings

illustrative V2 stub

Click a tag. Grades V0 through V4 never upgrade a ledger row. These tags must appear near any joule figure.

What each honesty tag means. PDF twin: static tag strip (§8).

shared-fig-01

Commit atoms strip

measured (schema) illustrative (UI) V2 stub

→ → →

Click an atom.

Click an atom to see its role in the commit path. PDF twin: static atom strip (§3 / §4).

shared-tab-01

Joule tier vocabulary

illustrative [SURROGATE] A V1 stub board_synth_claimed=false

Click a tier.

Shared joule tier vocabulary. PDF twin: static tier table (§8).

sat-3d-01

Bliss utility surface (3D orbit stub)

modelled (textbook) illustrative [SURROGATE] not agent eval V1 stub

Drag to orbit. Wireframe of textbook U = −a(x−x*)² − b(y−y*)². Peak = bliss; MU→0 near peak. Not an agent evaluation; not free-joules.

x*=1 · y*=1 · a=b=1

Textbook utility surface only. Not an agent evaluation and not free joules. PDF twin: static 2D bliss contour (§4). Inventory grade: modelled (textbook).