Economics essay · about
The Promised Trillion Dollar AI-Coding Market
Forecasts say AI coding will be worth trillions of dollars a year. This essay lists who says so, labels each number by what it is, and names the assumptions the forecasts share.
In plain words
- The big numbers about AI coding are mostly guesses about the future, not counts of money already earned.
- Almost all of them assume that every new piece of code needs a large AI model, paid by the word, forever.
- If working code can be saved and reused, the cost of a repeated job falls toward the cost of the electricity to run it, and those forecasts would be too high.